ZT: Don’t Lose Money: The Most Important Law of Lasting Wealth

Original post is here.

Let’s face it – most people don’t know when to sell a falling stock. So they’re frozen into inactivity, saying, “Should I just keep holding and hoping, or should I cut my losses now?”

This state of indecision is usually permanent, and often continues until you hear the all too familiar phrase, “well, it’s too late to sell now.”

One of my good friends lost it all following the “it’s too late to sell now” principle. He bought a ton of shares in a cable company based on his friend’s recommendation that it was supposed to take over the world. The shares soon tumbled in half, and his friend, who knows about the cable business, told him to buy more, so he did. The shares tumbled in half again, and he bought even more. He finally stopped buying when the shares hit a dollar a share. The shares eventually traded for pennies.

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Ten market rules to remember

From BOB FARRELL
  1. Markets tend to revert to the mean over time
  2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
  3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent
  4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think – but they do not correct by going sideways
  5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
  6. Fear and greed are stronger than long term resolve
  7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names
  8. Bear markets have three stages: sharp down, reflexive rebound, drawn-out fundamental downtrend
  9. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen
  10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets

ZT: It’s Never Too Late to Sell

Puzzlebird: This article is from Tim Du Toit, the fund manager from EuroLab. I had exactly the same experience as him for CCME, and wound is still bleeding.

As I have said in the past, in these articles I share with you what 20 years of equity investment has taught me – sometimes at considerable cost. In this issue I am going to tell you about an investment mistake I made. One from which you can learn a valuable lesson and prevent losing money the way I did.

I was going to tell you about two disastrous investments but will leave it at one today as the other is a longer story with larger losses.

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ZT: How to invest: Research and Valuation Process

Originally from “old school value”, all the credits belong to original author.

Here is the process I follow which is rooted in the Graham and Dodd approach:

Search

I usually scan for ideas reading print media such as the Wall Street JournalBarrons, and websites such as Google Finance and blogs looking at 52-wk lows lists looking for headlines that just spell “bad news” and articles that may lead to ideas with catalysts, event driven ideas and sometimes macro-event driven ideas.

I’ll use screens if I don’t find anything in the headlines. If something peeks my interest a bit, I’ll try to gather more news and get an idea as to what is happening with the company, look at historical highlights, pull some efficiency, liquidity ratios and some basic numbers to look for consistency and I’ll think about the risks to the current situation a company is in and decide if I could potentially profit off the situation.

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Purchased old school valuation spreadsheet

I have been following old school value website for more than a year to study his valuation approach for company. It is really solid way to improve personal confidence in investment.

Moving to 2011, I also invested USD 107 (promotion price) in purchasing his valuation toolkit (the spreadsheet) to help myself study US stocks more quickly.

In the last a few days, I have been spending roughly 1-2 hours per counter to calculate the intrinsic value. Honestly, it is not easy and error-prone. Hopefully the spreadsheet from old-school-value will help.

ZT: The Ten Worst Money Mistakes Anyone Can Make

Originally from Free Money Finance

The summary from puzzlebird: invest in index fund monthly, save more, and save longer

I’ve said many times that success in managing personal finances is pretty simple: spend less than you earn over a long period of time. If this is the heart of your financial plan, it’s likely that you’ll be prosperous.
That said, there is one other thing you’ll need to do – you must avoid the financial pitfalls that can significantly derail your finances. I call these the worst money moves anyone can make. I’m listing them below in countdown fashion along with some suggestions for avoiding them.

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Add Bank of America (BAC) into watch list

I have added BAC into my watch list for a long term value buy for following reasons

  • 2010 book value per share at 21.17  USD
  • 2010 tangible book value per share at 11.29 USD
  • 52 week low at 11.08 USD
  • insider purchase from CEO of BAC at 13.03 (early Aug 2010) for $390K
  • insider purchase from Directors of BAC (early Nov 2010) for ~400K each
  • Both Warren Buffet (Bank of New York) and 李嘉诚 (中国投资银行)are buy bank shares recently.

The investment horizon is about 3-5 years, with estimated return of 100% to reach the book value.

The truth of dollar cost averaging

I was talking with a financial assistant on investment, and he is trying to invite to for a long term investment plan which applies regular saving plan (RSP). RSP is actually a form of dollar cost averaging where the client deposits a fix amount of the investment into a long term instrument. Usually it is EFT or funds for 20 years.

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