原文：李月亮
在你的生命里，经历了一些很重大的事情，可是你并不知道。
5岁那年，爸爸下班回来，你跑去迎接他，不小心摔了个狗啃泥，
你并不知道，就在你摔倒的地方往左两厘米，立着一根小钉子，
10岁那年，你一个人在家煮方便面，刚把水壶放到煤气炉上，
ZT: 那些你所不知道的大事
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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Use 52 week low as start point for stock selection
When my wife scanned through my stock watchlist, she screened that “buy JNJ, buy that, buy that!”. She knows nothing about fundamental analysis or technical analysis, but it is an intuitive buy for a brand of 100 years and a organization that output products we trust. So the next step is what’s the price you want to buy for JNJ? My criteria is 52 week low.
The criteria of 52 week low is not simply buy when a stock price hits the level. It is when a quality stock hits its 52 week low due to certain unexpected issue (such as product recall), and 1-2 months later to re-test the that 52 week low test without breaking it. At this point, the stoploss will be previous 52 week low, and take profit can be the previous 52 week high, or just hold due to good entry position. With this we can well balance the risk and reward ratio.
I did this for BP, and ABT for last a few month successfully. At this point of time, JNJ is not in the buy position yet.
Comments on MAC
A few comments on MAC
- There’s no “uninstaller” on MAC OSX. Many people assume it is as simple as just remove the application folder, but that’s NOT the case. A lot of things may have been installed into the underlying BSD file system.
- Most people like Apple due to its stunning user interface. I would agree that in Windows XP age, that’s the case, but since Windows 7, the gap is not that significant at all. In addition, the underlying hardware requirement to support MAC’s user interface is not always available on all PC. In 2003, MAC already starts to ship computer with 128 MB dedicated graphic card, while on normal PC a 64GB shared memory works in most of the cases.
- Apple care is too expensive. For a laptop, it will take 300/y to ensure you are covered for the quality product. Ironically, most of the component of a MAC laptop gets issues in 13th to 15th month as to my personal experience with move hundreds of MAC. As to my personal experience again, Apple’s PC has a bad quality since 2003 when Steve Jobs are crazy at creating the edge by bringing slimmer and smaller product. Just use common sense, Apple’s product is 20-30% smaller/lighter than normal PC, but 10-20% more powerful, and Apple is trying to sell the roughly the same range of price, what will the quality in the product?!
- Really sometimes you can not find a suitable free or cheap software available on MAC.
- User experience is not a big deal as compare with OSX and Windows 7, maybe 5%-10% difference. Big deal?
I am not totally negative to MAC, and am planning to buy a IPAD, but the above mentioned is to bring rational thinking and experience to my friends. When I had a choice of Mac Air 11inch and HP 2540p, I quickly chose HP 2540p. It is the laptop that is rock solid, and can support me to get things done quickly with all available software and alternatives.
PIP in action: week 35
Forex（完全自动机）
- EURUSD：趋势逆转，上升趋势
- USDJPY：方向不明，等待，偏向作底
- AUDUSD：方向不明，等待，偏向头部形成的下跌
Commodity
- 石油：强势上涨，开始回调，观察XOM/COP股票的机会
- 黄金：4次高点后无新高，已经进入调整，继续看空。
Global Index
- STI：头颈肩没有确认，转化为延续行情，3000-3300震荡，短期头部形成，等待机会
- Hang Seng：在上升通道稳住，空头失败，继续观察
- Shanghai：下降趋势形成，走向2600的支撑，继续观察
- SP500：多头显示强势，突破1258，观察1309-1358的区域
Stock：
- Energy
- NYSE:XOM：我计算的内在价值是69，现在79，等待价格回调。
- NYSE:COP：我计算的内在价值是73，现在67，观察进场点
- Food
- NYSE:MON：我计算的内在价值为74.85，现在70，仔细观察。
- Defense
- NYSE:GD：内在价值 ～70，等待
- NYSE:UTX：内在价值 80-90，等待
- NYSE:LMT：分红75c，年分红大于4%，在LMT的历史上只有一次，说明好机会，计算的内在价值90，已买在69.8（Jan5， 2011），涨到79.2，继续持有
- Bio/Pharma
- NYSE:JNJ：我计算的内在价值 55-67，等待
- NYSE:ABT：靠近52周低点，我计算的内在价值45.27，现在48，在47.56进了200股，等待1月26号季报在决定
- NYSE:TEVA：
- Consumer
- NYSE:MO：内在价值 26.5
- NYSE:T：内在价值 30.4
- NYSE:WMT：内在价值160（DCF)??
- NYSE:IBM：内在价值160-180左右
- NASDAQ:CCME：在15.75附近买入825股 (Dec 23, 2010)，涨到19.65，继续持有
- Singapore
- Keppel：DEPS=19, DCF=13, 等待机会
- Jardin C&C: DEPS=61,DCF=31，说明盈利情况好
- SIN:OCBC：DEPS=10.9, DCF=78,说明拥有很多现金，但是盈利不是很高，现在10元附近，值得好好观察
- CITYDEV: DEPS=18, DCF=16.3，值得观察
- SIN:SGX：DEPS=13, DCF=7.4，说明盈利能力强，但是分红占EPS比例很高，合理入场位应该在5以下
- SIN:OCBC：DEPS=10.9, DCF=78,说明拥有很多现金，但是盈利不是很高，现在10元附近，值得好好观察
- Singtel: DEPS=2, DCF=5, 说明现金多，但是盈利能力有限
ZT: 揭秘美国的“世界金融战” 中国这次能抗住吗？
核心提示: 2001年美国网络泡沫破灭以后美国的精英们据此计划了一个堪称完美的世纪大计划。这个帖子更加详细的阐述了刘军洛先生的想法。我深信这些在这1-2年就会发生。
作者：海啸后的希望
上一篇我写了关于《雷曼倒闭的真相》，但是我认为这只是美国战略中的一小部分。
自从1990年击垮自以为是的日本，1992年攻击不可一世英镑，制造1995年的墨西哥危机 ，1997年的亚洲金融危机，美国的金融界已经熟练的掌握了如何利用经济波动和各国的经济致命缺陷 制造危机，并利用金融手段在危机中牟利。—–所以在2001年美国网络泡沫破灭以后美国的精英们据此计划了一个堪称完美的世纪大计划。