Author Archives: admin

Two small tips on Mac OS

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1. IOS5 new installation by default disables cookie. If we observe iPhone can not login to website which requires ID/Pwd, we’d need to check if cookie was enabled.

2. Safari 5 on Lion supports various extensions. One of the Safari extension I installed was “Click-to-flash” which by default disables all flash display until you click on it. It turns out my company’s HTTP VPN is based on flash and java, this extension actually fails the installation as well execution of HTTP VPN. It works again when we disable the extension.

ZT: 既然活着…

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原文在左岸读书

王小波曾说过，根据他的经验，人在年轻时，最头疼的一件事就是决定自己这一生要做什么。这个经验同样适合于我，记得年轻时的我对这件事很是头疼，有时候晚上躺在床上搂着心爱的姑娘还是睡不着，想到这一生要做的事还没考虑好就忧心忡忡，如履薄冰，像是一个初次拜访岳父却来不及准备见面礼的年青小伙子一样。解决的办法其实很简单，就是把身边的姑娘叫醒聊个大天——当然，考虑到是大半夜的，而且人家第二天一大清早还得赶去上班，所以有时候非但不能叫醒，还可能挨一顿歇斯底里的臭骂，弄得整栋楼都能听到，以为我们要拆楼。所以，另一个解决办法就是爬起来去翻冰箱找啤酒喝，喝多了自然想少了，但如你所知，喝酒只能解决晚上的问题，不能彻底解决头疼的苦恼。所幸的是，我现在年纪也不小了，身边的姑娘也较为固定了，头疼的时候自然少得多了。换句话来说，我对于自己这一生要做什么这个命题已经有了几分把握。

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ZT: IT Vendor Management: Four Secrets Revealed

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From CIOInsight

Over the several decades that I have been involved with information and communication technologies, I’ve come to recognize that there are dozens — or even hundred — of choices about how to do almost anything. That’s great if you like the choosing process, but it’s not so great if your objective is to have a relatively simple life—and to manage the operational costs and consequences of your choices.

Choosing is complicated by the tendency of vendors to sell you their capabilities on the basis of what they will do soon, rather than what they can do now — and by our tendency as buyers to base decisions on just such future promises. This has always seemed to me to be the essence of foolishness. We are, essentially, two sets of well-intentioned liars:

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PIP in action: week 35

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Forex（完全自动机）

  • EURUSD：趋势逆转，上升趋势
  • USDJPY：方向不明，等待，偏向作底
  • AUDUSD：方向不明，等待，偏向头部形成的下跌

Commodity

  • 石油：强势上涨，开始回调，观察XOM/COP股票的机会
  • 黄金：4次高点后无新高，已经进入调整，继续看空。

Global Index

  • STI：头颈肩没有确认，转化为延续行情，3000-3300震荡，短期头部形成，等待机会
  • Hang Seng：在上升通道稳住，空头失败，继续观察
  • Shanghai：下降趋势形成，走向2600的支撑，继续观察
  • SP500：多头显示强势，突破1258，观察1309-1358的区域

Stock：

  • Energy
    • NYSE:XOM：我计算的内在价值是69，现在79，等待价格回调。
    • NYSE:COP：我计算的内在价值是73，现在67，观察进场点
  • Food
    • NYSE:MON：我计算的内在价值为74.85，现在70，仔细观察。
  • Defense
    • NYSE:GD：内在价值 ～70，等待
    • NYSE:UTX：内在价值 80-90，等待
    • NYSE:LMT：分红75c，年分红大于4%，在LMT的历史上只有一次，说明好机会，计算的内在价值90，已买在69.8（Jan5， 2011），涨到79.2，继续持有
  • Bio/Pharma
    • NYSE:JNJ：我计算的内在价值 55-67，等待
    • NYSE:ABT：靠近52周低点，我计算的内在价值45.27，现在48，在47.56进了200股，等待1月26号季报在决定
    • NYSE:TEVA：
  • Consumer
    • NYSE:MO：内在价值 26.5
    • NYSE:T：内在价值 30.4
    • NYSE:WMT：内在价值160（DCF)??
    • NYSE:IBM：内在价值160-180左右
    • NASDAQ:CCME：在15.75附近买入825股 (Dec 23, 2010)，涨到19.65，继续持有
  • Singapore
    • Keppel：DEPS=19, DCF=13, 等待机会
    • Jardin C&C: DEPS=61,DCF=31，说明盈利情况好
    • SIN:OCBC：DEPS=10.9, DCF=78,说明拥有很多现金，但是盈利不是很高，现在10元附近，值得好好观察
    • CITYDEV: DEPS=18, DCF=16.3，值得观察
    • SIN:SGX：DEPS=13, DCF=7.4，说明盈利能力强，但是分红占EPS比例很高，合理入场位应该在5以下
    • SIN:OCBC：DEPS=10.9, DCF=78,说明拥有很多现金，但是盈利不是很高，现在10元附近，值得好好观察
    • Singtel: DEPS=2, DCF=5, 说明现金多，但是盈利能力有限

Market sentiment

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Market sentiment is extremely bullish, and it almost reaches 10 years high and exceed 2007. This is the signal of market top. I’d be very careful on the stock I am holding. They are in profit, and I will need to protect such profit, and wait for market correct to load more.